Real Estate June 22, 2020

Updated Housing forecast for 2020.

Here’s the updated 2020 Housing forecast from realtor.com.  In mid-December realtor.com released the annual 2020 housing forecast. Fast forward five months and it’s no surprise the numbers have changed. “We got derailed on the forecast as we expected,” realtor.com Senior Economist George Raitu explains.

The updated data forecasts shows “sales of homes to fall 15 percent in 2020 with prices flattening.” That’s compared to the original forecast of a slight home sales decline of 1.8 percent. Single family housing starts were expected to be up 10 percent for 2020, that number has dropped to a decline of 11 percent.

Raitu sums up the market. “Uncertainty is the key word for pretty much every aspect of the market for the rest of the year.” Key market fundamentals include baby boomers not selling, Millennials wanting to buy, affordable secondary markets and an unstable global economy.  The upcoming Presidential election also plays into the uncertainty factor.

Realtor.com does forecast a short-term bump in sales for late summer and early fall due to pent up buyer demand, fear of the coronavirus diminishing and low mortgage rates. Another driver for a stronger third quarter is Millennials with families want to settle in new homes before the school year begins. Don’t expect an increase in sales to last into the fourth quarter though.